An AR(1) process is yt−μ=ϕ(yt−1−μ)+εty_t - \mu = \phi(y_{t-1} - \mu) + \varepsilon_tyt−μ=ϕ(yt−1−μ)+εt. The Yule-Walker estimate of ϕ\phiϕ is the lag-1 autocorrelation:
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